Monday, commenting on Mitch McConnell's demand that Chuck Schumer pledge not to end the filibuster, I suggested that "the filibuster appears highly vulnerable and, in my view, isn’t likely to survive unscathed in the near term." Why not? Because the stakes are so high for Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats that they can't afford to let McConnell -- the master of obstruction -- stand in the way of Biden's agenda.
Now McConnell has relented (or caved or thrown in the towel, depending on the source), but in any case, has relinquished the gavel without getting Schumer's pledge. But did McConnell really lose anything? He relented only after two Democratic senators (Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema), having watched the standoff for the better part of a week, reiterated their categorical opposition to ending the filibuster. So, while the minority leader is no longer blocking an organizing resolution, he did expose in real time a divided Democratic caucus.
Even more concerning for Democrats with ambitious goals -- such as passing Biden's $1.9 billion relief package, the first in a long list of priorities that Republicans are unlikely to favor -- at least one of those Democrats has his eyes on a smaller package and is intent on compromising with Republicans to reach an agreement.
“I’ll guarantee you I can sit down with my Republican friends and find a pathway forward,” said Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who said it was “horrible” how Republicans evaded the filibuster to try and pass their agenda on tax cuts and health care when they held the majority. “Let me try first.”
Horrible? He's referring to a procedure that preserved the filibuster. Budget reconciliation is an established exception to the rule, not a partisan escalation. The West Virginia senator may be signaling his disfavor of the fallback plan that many Democrats have anticipated relying on, if (as expected) McConnell insists on 60-votes to move legislation, and the Senate majority can’t muster 51 votes to abolish the filibuster altogether.
Most Democrats recall with frustration the protracted negotiations on ACA (when Max Baucus was convinced he could find a pathway forward to gain Republican votes). McConnell, convinced that the longer negotiations dragged on, the less popular the bill would become, encouraged Chuck Grassley to keep talking with Democrats (while the Iowa senator made no commitment to support the legislation). The result? A bill based on a Republican plan and watered down to draw GOP support, yet failing to gain a single Republican 'Yea.' Not, McConnell boasted, a single GOP fingerprint.
Democrats, intent on making a mark while they have both the White House and extraordinarily narrow majorities in Congress, see the filibuster as McConnell's key tool in obstructing their agenda. The new president faces multiple crises. His success and Democrats' success in 2022 and 2024 depend on delivering on his agenda.
Moreover, as Greg Sargent notes,
In this telling, Democrats are now operating from the premise that hopes for restored faith in our democratic system — hopes for the defeat of Trump and the capture of the Senate by popular majorities leading to genuine civic renewal — rest less on achieving bipartisan cooperation for its own sake, and more on the scale of the program that Democrats deliver upon.
Democrats are the party of government. Republicans win when faith in government declines. McConnell and the GOP are masters of gridlock, capable of ensuring dysfunction while stoking frustration and anger -- and blaming the other side. Aside from a tax cut that benefited corporations and the wealthiest Americans, four years of a Republican White House produced few significant legislative accomplishments and virtually nothing that tangibly touched the lives of regular folks (including the Trump-Republican base).
The GOP relinquished the House majority in 2018, and the White House and Senate majority in 2020. McConnell's foremost goal is to watch Democrats fail in 2022 and 2024. We have every reason to expect him to employ the filibuster to that end.
McConnell has seen changes in Senate rules (by the majority) and practices (by the minority) as control of each house of Congress and of the White House have shifted over time. He has seldom been caught flatfooted. The minority leader hardly seems chastised by Democrats’ threat to nuke the filibuster in 2021. I suggest that Senator McConnell's ability to paralyze the Senate during much of Biden’s first week in office, after Democrats won a tenuous majority in the chamber, served as an object lesson for Democrats, not in any sense a defeat for Republicans. After watching McConnell 'cave' as Senators Manchin and Sinema weighed in, I find it less likely, not more, that Democrats will succeed in killing the filibuster.
Note: McConnell's remarks in agreeing to an organizing resolution offer further evidence of these conclusions. His statement to the Senate, which includes a remarkable threat, also illustrates the erosion of governing norms that weaken our democracy. This will be the subject of another post.