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Yesterday, focusing on the 5-4 decision reinstating Alabama's racial gerrymander, I posted critical comments regarding the partisan majority that dominates the Supreme Court. In this morning's Los Angeles Times, Dean Edwin Chemerinsky, of Berkeley Law, offers an op-ed titled, "Conservative justices are helping elect Republicans". While Chemerinsky does not use Linda Greenhouse's raw power play language, he goes further than her in suggesting that their decision can hardly be understood as "anything other than an effort by the conservative justices to help Republicans in the midterms," concluding:

Now it appears that the conservatives are ready to limit the use of the Voting Rights Act to prohibit discrimination in redistricting. It is surely not coincidental that all of these rulings by Republican-appointed justices help Republicans in elections and hurt Democrats.
As Justice Elena Kagan wrote in her dissent, this ruling allows to stand a “violation of a law this Court once knew to buttress all of American democracy.” Time and again, the court’s conservatives have shown that they are perfectly willing to ignore this principle.

Linda Greenhouse, writing in the New York Times ("The Supreme Court Has Crossed the Rubicon"), never acknowledges the agenda of the Republican Party, but does excoriate the majority for trampling on established precedents, principles, and processes:

What happened Monday night was a raw power play by a runaway majority that seems to recognize no stopping point. It bears emphasizing that the majority’s agenda of cutting back on the scope of the Voting Rights Act is Chief Justice Roberts’s agenda too. He made that abundantly clear in the past and suggested it in a kind of code on Monday with his bland observation that the court’s Voting Rights Act precedents “have engendered considerable disagreement and uncertainty regarding the nature and contours of a vote dilution claim.” But in his view, that was an argument to be conducted in the next Supreme Court term while permitting the district court’s decision to take effect now.

Further, she writes: "It’s impossible not to conclude that what we see at work is not some neutral principle guiding the Supreme Court’s intervention but simply whether a majority likes or doesn’t like what a lower court has done."

This is such a distressing decision from a court determined to eviscerate the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which constituted a giant step toward democratic governance -- where no one was denied voting rights and representation because of race (consistent with the 15th Amendment) -- in the United States.

In an unsigned 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court overruled a 3-judge panel of the District Court, which had ruled that Alabama's redistricting plan constituted illegal racial gerrymandering, thus violating the Voting Rights Act.

Justice Roberts in dissent with Justice Kagan (see below) that the lower court's ruling was consistent with current Supreme Court precedent; thus, "the District Court properly applied existing law in an extensive opinion with no apparent errors for our correction."

Justice Kagan, in a separate dissent (joined by Justices Breyer and Sotomayor), stated: "The District Court (including two judges from the State) found that the plan unlawfully diluted the votes of the State’s Black population, and ordered the State to devise a new plan for the 2022 elections."

While Justice Kavanaugh (joined by Justice Alito) issued a concurring opinion to the majority's unsigned ruling, he did not dispute Roberts and Kagan's judgement regarding precedent.

The subtext: the current Republican supermajority on the court (including Roberts) are poised to overturn previous Supreme Court rulings and federal law, though this will not happen until later this term or next. (Kavanaugh's concurrence denies any signaling by the court. Time will tell how credible his grumbling is.)

This majority isn't willing to wait. Five Republican justices are in a rush to overturn decades-long precedent without even a full briefing and presentation of arguments. (Roberts can wait; he'll choose whether or not to join his colleagues later. Past behavior -- and an aggressive aversion to the 1965 act -- suggests that he will be on board eventually.) These justices have made up their minds. Their ruling, when it comes, will almost certainly harmonize with the agenda of the Alabama (and national) Republican Party.

Justice Kagan's dissent concluded:

Today’s decision is one more in a disconcertingly long line of cases in which this Court uses its shadow docket to signal or make changes in the law, without anything approaching full briefing and argument. Here, the District Court applied established legal principles to an extensive evidentiary record. Its reasoning was careful—indeed, exhaustive—and justified in every respect. To reverse that decision requires upsetting the way Section 2 plaintiffs have for decades—and in line with our caselaw—proved vote-dilution claims. That is a serious matter, which cannot properly occur without thorough consideration. Yet today the Court skips that step, staying the District Court’s order based on the untested and unexplained view that the law needs to change. That decision does a disservice to our own appellate processes, which serve both to constrain and to legitimate the Court’s authority. It does a disservice to the District Court, which meticulously applied this Court’s longstanding voting-rights precedent. And most of all, it does a disservice to Black Alabamians who under that precedent have had their electoral power diminished—in violation of a law this Court once knew to buttress all of American democracy.

When Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti was captured in a photograph with Magic Johnson and San Francisco Mayor London Breed -- all maskless -- at an NFL playoff game at SoFi Stadium, violating both California and County of Los Angeles mask mandates, he explained: “I wore my mask the entire game. And when people ask for a photograph, I hold my breath.” (Bill Clinton didn't inhale; the LA mayor didn't exhale.)

Photographs from Earvin Magic Johnson post on Twitter.

Richard Carpiano, a UC-Riverside professor of public policy and a public health scientist, observed, “It’s not sustainable and advisable to hold your breath.” Suggesting that Garcetti should have worn a mask, he commented, “So much about politics is about public relations and leading by example.” 

Mayor Breed and Governor Gavin Newsom (also pictured with Johnson), chronic scofflaws when it comes to masking, are -- with Garcetti -- abject failures in leading by example. Public officials who defy public policy lose credibility. This is not advisable, nor does it contribute to sustainable public policy. That's true of COVID mandates and recommendations.

More generally, such poor examples contribute to a cynicism regarding government and resistance to calls by public officials for people to step up for the common good. Defiance of public health mandates by elected officials casts doubt on the authority of science and medicine, which should undergird those mandates. This creates mistrust of states, cities, counties, and school districts when they seek to act in the public interest.

All this is bad for the Democratic Party, which relies on an activist agenda -- on enacting and implementing public policies (grounded in facts and evidence to establish their worth) to benefit Americans.

Yeah, of course, Republicans are worse. In a recent column Michael Gerson reviewed "three varieties of GOP political necromania."

To summarize Gerson's critique (with just a sentence or two about each variety, beginning with the version practiced by Ron DeSantis):

a) "In the name of freedom, politicians such as the Florida governor employ the power of their office to prevent other social institutions from taking responsible, lifesaving steps in the midst of a pandemic. This is an effort by populists to prove that their MAGA commitments outweigh all common sense, public responsibility and basic humanity."

b) "A second type of the Republican romance with death comes in the vilification of those most dedicated to preserving the lives of Americans. Public officials such as Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) invent a conspiratorial backstory to the covid crisis and depict the most visible representatives of the United States’ covid response as scheming, deceptive deep-state operatives. Any change in emphasis or strategy by scientists — an essential commitment of the scientific method — is viewed as rich opposition research."

c) "A third category of Republican death wish is the practice of strategic ignorance. In a case such as Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) — America’s most reliable source of unreliable information about covid-19 — such ignorance might not be feigned."

As A.B. Stoddard observes ("COVID Derangement Is Working Out Just Fine for the GOP"), each of these approaches is a winner for Republicans:

You mix doubt with denial, look past the lost lives and then wait. When the infection spreads, the virus replicates and mutates, and new variants jolt the economy, you then blame President Joe Biden.
For nearly two years we have witnessed an entire cohort of Americans reject the social compact and discard the welfare of others, including their own loved ones. In the name of liberty they have proudly protected the rights of Americans to reject vaccines, refuse masks, spread the virus, demand expensive therapeutics, claim ICU beds, clog up hospitals, and gum up the economy.

These efforts advance the immediate political interests of the Republican Party, though they are antithetical to the welfare of Americans. They make it difficult for any party to unite the country (or a state or locality) to come together for the benefit of all. They disable the capacity of government to advance the public good.

Republicans have made a choice. By tearing down government, by casting doubt on science (and even in "our collective ability to distinguish truth from falsehood" in Jonathan Rauch's words), they seek to gain and hold political power.

Democrats' interests -- achieving public policy goals -- require viable, trustworthy political institutions. Democratic leaders should not be giving Americans reason to lose faith in government.

Donald Trump says he might pardon people who stormed the Capitol on January 6 trying to stop Congress from certifying the Electoral College victory of Joe Biden.

His pardons in the last few hours before vacating the White House included many cronies, notably including accused crook Steve Bannon, who served as Trump's chief strategist. Earlier beneficiaries of Trump pardons included two convicted criminals -- Roger Stone and Paul Manafort -- who refused to testify against the 45th president.

More recently Trump acknowledged that the machinations focused on January 6 were designed to overturn the election that he lost. Trump issued a statement asserting that on January 6 "Mike Pence did have the right to change the outcome, and they now want to take that right away. Unfortunately, he didn’t exercise that power, he could have overturned the Election!" (The full "Statement by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America" has been removed by the former president, but Adam Kinzinger captured the original press release.)

Meanwhile, an Arizona state representative has introduced a 35-page bill rewriting the state election laws. Republican John Fillmore, who discounts evidence that there was no election fraud in 2020, insisted, “We need to get back to 1958-style voting.” (That would be seven years before passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Bill.) More significant than imposing restrictions on voting, Fillmore's proposed legislation would direct the legislature to call itself into special session after each election to "accept or reject the election results."

This accords with Trump's view that, "Sometimes the vote counter is more important than the candidate."

Another Arizona Republican in the state legislature, Mark Finchem, who was at the Capitol on January 6, has appeared at QAnon conferences, and insists that the 2020 election was "irredeemably compromised," is running for Secretary of State of the Grand Canyon State -- so he can oversee future elections. He is among at least 20 secretary of state candidates across the country who question the legitimacy of Joe Biden's election. (NPR has a list.)

Today, the national Republican Party -- committed, first and foremost, to defending their leader, who lost the 2020 election -- passed a resolution censuring Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger for their participation in the committee investigating the January 6 Capitol riot. The resolution disregards the lawless violence, the deaths that resulted, the injuries to police officers, the destruction of property, the chants of "Hang Mike Pence" (as the Vice President and his family were escorted from danger by the Secret Service), and the memory of House and Senate members fleeing in fear, insisting that the committee's investigation is a “Democrat-led persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.”

The Grand Old Party is committed to restricting American voters' right to cast ballots, changing election laws to make it simpler for state legislatures to overturn election results, and doing its utmost to whitewash political violence in defiance of the Constitution and the rule of law.

"Underlying everything else in this dispute is a single, simple question: Who decides how much protection, and of what kind, American workers need from Covid-19? An agency with expertise in workplace health and safety, acting as Congress and the president authorized? Or a court, lacking any knowledge of how to safeguard workplaces and insulated from responsibility for any damage it causes?"

-- Justices Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan dissenting in NFIB v. OSHA (January 13, 2022)

Linda Greenhouse highlighted that passage in her recent tribute to Stephen Breyer and his passionate devotion to the Constitution, which he views as "an engine of progress." She writes, "That this argument failed to carry the day speaks volumes not only about how out of step Justice Breyer is with the court’s trajectory but also how out of step the majority is with the kind of fact-based analysis that he has brought to the problems the court is charged with solving."

Ideally, justices would look to the facts and the law when issuing decisions. Not so with the current supermajority on the court. Instead, as I noted recently, they simply make things up.

As Scott Lemieux put it ("A Right-Wing Supreme Court Keeps Pretending Laws Say Things They Do Not"):

The Supreme Court’s recent decision in NFIB v. OSHA, which blocked enforcement of the Biden administration’s test-or-vaccinate mandate for large employers, is disastrous because it will result in more avoidable COVID-19 deaths. But it is also disastrous because it heralds an emboldened conservative Supreme Court eager to ignore the text of statutes to impose its own views of public policy on the public.

The Republican nominees claim to do this in the name of protecting the prerogatives of the people’s elected representatives. This is a cynical inversion of the truth: The only power the Court is protecting is its own.

Lemieux describes the same duplicitous approach regarding voting rights. I've written more than once about John Roberts' decades-long campaign to disable the 1965 Voting Rights Act. As Lemieux notes, while working in the Reagan White House, Roberts urged Congress to require a showing of discriminatory intent to find violations of the Voting Rights Act; Congress rejected this approach; Roberts and the court's conservative eventually imposed the requirement in Brnovich v. DNC (employing "mostly made-up factors," as Justice Kagan noted in her dissent).

Lemieux again:

In essence, a six-justice conservative supermajority “interpreted” the Voting Rights Act as if Roberts had prevailed in 1982, when in fact Congress had repudiated his vision for what the law should look like. The same is true of the Court’s opinion in NFIB: None of the “rules” are found in the text of the statute. They’re simply meant to frustrate the will of Congress whenever Congress does something that leads to results the justices don’t like.

NFIB and Brnovich are especially ominous for American democracy because they leave Congress with no outs. Courts that willfully ignore the text and purpose of major statutes are an existential threat to democratic self-rule, because even if majorities can surmount the formidable obstacles to legislating, Republican-controlled courts can simply rewrite the law to suit their own preferences. In his concurrence in NFIB, Justice Gorsuch claimed to be standing up for “the people’s elected representatives in Congress.” In reality, the Court has found another way to consolidate power in itself. 

Paul Campos observes (at Lawyers, Guns & Money): "John Roberts and the Furious Five have ruled that because in 1970 Congress didn’t have the foresight to pass a statute that specifically said that Joe Biden could tell OSHA in 2021 to issue a vaccine mandate because of COVID-19, Joe Biden can’t do that. This is a consistent application of the Republican Supreme Court’s doctrine that statutes written in general terms to deal with a wide variety of issues can only be enforced by Republican administrations."

That aptly summarizes conservatives' goal of crafting a partisan constitution.

This man brought hate and division to the mainstream of contemporary U.S. politics.

Newt Gingrich was an innovator. A party leader (however briefly), he brought a revolution to the Republican Party and to the country. The hate, disinformation, polarization, and division we're living with today stems from the man who served as Speaker of the House for four years more than two decades ago. He had a powerful assist from Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes, and today Gingrich's influence is overshadowed by that of Fox News Network, which is king of the conservative media universe that serves to drive the divisions that the GOP relies on and often to set the party's agenda.

In a 2018 article, written not quite two years into the Trump presidency, about disinformation ("a national-level epistemic attack: a systematic attack, emanating from the very highest reaches of power, on our collective ability to distinguish truth from falsehood"), Jonathan Rauch asked, “Will Trump and the trolls triumph?” His answer:

I doubt it. Weaponized trolling has enjoyed the advantage of surprise, but as that diminishes, the troll army will encounter a disadvantage. Trolls have swarms, but the constitution of knowledge has institutions.

He's right, I believe, to look to institutions as crucial. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt sustain a focus on institutions (and institutional failures) throughout their book, How Democracies Die, beginning on page 2:

American politicians now treat their rivals as enemies, intimidate the free press, and threaten to reject the results of elections. They try to weaken the institutional buffers of our democracy, including the courts, intelligence services, and ethics offices. American states, which were once praised by the great jurist Louis Brandeis as "laboratories of democracy," are in danger of becoming laboratories of authoritarianism as those in power rewrite electoral rules, redraw constituencies, and even rescind voting rights to ensure that they do not lose.

Another recurring theme of Levitsky and Ziblatt's remarkable book (published on January 16, 2018, marking not quite the end of Trump's first year in office) is the critical role of party leadership -- and the continuing failure of GOP officials to lead by standing up for democratic norms and institutions. The Gingrich rhetoric of the 1990s pales in comparison to the language of today's Republicans in Congress and statehouses across the country (and on cable television). Republican voters are drenched in disinformation, fear, and hate, while GOP leaders are afraid to contradict the lies that have become entrenched within the party.

Here's what Rauch's contrast -- between trolls with swarms, on the one hand, and journalism, academia, and science bolstered with institutions, on the other -- overlooks: it is not individual trolls (not even Donald Trump) that drive disinformation. It is institutions.

Fox News Channel is an institution. A popular, influential, sustainable institution. The Republican Party is an institution. The party that will be empowered whenever the Democratic Party loses favor in a closely divided country.

There is no way that internet trolls (posting on Facebook or Twitter or reddit) could convince most Republican voters that their prickly leader won the 2020 presidential election. It is Republicans in Congress who appear on Fox News. Not just the crazies who spread the most wild tales, but the leaders (even those who duck and dodge to avoid outright lies) who won't straightforwardly acknowledge the truth. It is Republican governors and state legislative leaders whose agenda makes little sense apart from the lies and conspiracy theories. (There is no room for dissent. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, among others, find themselves on the outside of Trump's party looking in.)

An authoritarian political party threatens our democracy. This isn't a case of trolls vs. institutions. It's institutions vs. institutions. I am in agreement with Kevin Drum (who doesn't overlook Gingrich's role): Fox News is the principle source of division in the United States. This chart from Drum sums things up:

Ronald Brownstein, writing in the Atlantic ("How Manchin and Sinema Completed a Conservative Vision”), traces “a resounding triumph for Chief Justice John Roberts in his four-decade quest to roll back the federal government’s role in protecting voter rights.”

In a series of rulings over the past 15 years, the Supreme Court, often in decisions written by Roberts himself, has consistently weakened federal oversight of voter protections and struck down federal regulations meant to reduce the influence of money in politics. Almost all of those decisions have unfolded on a strict party-line basis, with the Republican-appointed justices outvoting those appointed by Democrats.
Those decisions have had an enormous practical impact on the rules for American elections. But many voting-rights advocates say that the rulings have been equally important in sending a signal to Republican-controlled states that the Supreme Court majority is unlikely to stand in their way if they impose new restrictions on voting or extreme partisan gerrymanders in congressional and state legislative districts.

Roberts’ relentless quest to stifle voting rights goes back decades (to his service in Reagan’s White House). Brownstein observes:

Roberts, who served as a young clerk to conservative Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist and as a Justice Department assistant in the Reagan administration, has long expressed hostility to federal oversight of voting and election rules. As the journalist Ari Berman recounted in his 2015 book, Give Us the Ballot, Roberts “led the charge” against the bipartisan 1982 reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act, which ultimately reversed a Supreme Court decision (supported by Rehnquist) weakening one key section of the law. Roberts wrote “upwards of 25 memos” opposing the legislation’s provision requiring that the Justice Department prove only discriminatory “effect” rather than purposeful “intent” in order to block state or local voting restrictions. (The Court had ruled the opposite, severely limiting the law’s applicability.)

Roberts’ animus has been unwavering:

That approach has guided Roberts on the Supreme Court. As the Harvard Law School professor Nicholas Stephanopoulos, an expert in voting law, wrote in a 2019 law-review article, “The Roberts Court has … never nullified a law making it harder to vote.” To the contrary, in a series of landmark decisions, it has nullified efforts to ensure voter access, combat gerrymanders, and to limit political contributions and spending.

While the Chief Justice (with other justices) insists that the court is not partisan, in the most consequential rulings on voting rights, campaign finance, and gerrymandering – Shelby County v. Holder; Citizens United v. FEC; Rucho v. Common Cause; Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee – the court has split strictly along partisan lines (with one exception): every conservative (that is, Republican-appointed) justice has ruled in favor of the Republican Party’s agenda and every liberal (Democratic-appointed) justice has dissented. (The single exception: John Paul Stevens joined the liberal justices in the minority in opposing Citizens United.)

In cases where no liberal justices can be found in the majority, this Republican-dominated court takes sides nearly unerringly with the Republican Party. There is no legal theory, judicial principle, or constitutional basis, and certainly no commitment to calling balls and strikes, that better explains how the conservative majority’s agenda – in the cases it takes and the decisions it hands down – coincides so well with the agenda of the contemporary GOP.

OSHA rule to protect American workers

Consider last week’s granting of a stay in NFIB v. OSHA. As Linda Greenhouse observes ("What the Supreme Court's Vaccine Case Was Really About"),

The fact is that this dispute — which, remarkably, found 27 states aligned against the federal government — was never principally about the vaccine. OSHA’s “emergency temporary standard,” under which employers of 100 or more people were to require vaccination or weekly testing, was mainly a target of opportunity. It offered the conservative justices a chance to lay down a marker: that if there is a gap to fill in Congress’s typically broadly worded grant of authority to an administrative agency, it will be the Supreme Court that will fill it, and not the agency. “Placing constraints on the administrative state,” as Eugene Scalia, Justice Antonin Scalia’s son and secretary of labor during the last year of the Trump administration, observed in a Wall Street Journal op-ed in praise of the decision, is “a defining concern of the Roberts court.”

This court aims to do what Republicans who seek elective office – to the presidency and the Congress – have failed to do: to hack back against Democratic policies that GOP party leaders and donors don’t like. This is a court determined to impose a partisan constitution on the country. The court’s conservative majority seeks to disable (small-d) democratic politics, imposing constraints not found in the constitution or in federal statutes. These constraints serve to rule Democratic policy choices out of order; thus, the court's decisions advantage the Republican Party at the expense of the Democratic Party (regardless of which party wins elections).

By a 6-3 vote the conservative justices granted a stay to an emergency OSHA rule to protect American workers from infection by COVID. Justices Breyer, Sotomayer, and Kagan began their dissent with the recognition of the human toll brought on by the pandemic:

Every day, COVID–19 poses grave dangers to the citizens of this country—and particularly, to its workers. The disease has by now killed almost 1 million Americans and hospitalized almost 4 million. It spreads by person-to-person contact in confined indoor spaces, so causes harm in nearly all workplace environments. And in those environments, more than any others, individuals have little control, and therefore little capacity to mitigate risk. COVID–19, in short, is a menace in work settings. The proof is all around us: Since the disease’s onset, most Americans have seen their workplaces transformed.

Pretext, not text

Conservatives have affirmed for decades that they rely on close reading of the text (‘strict constructionism’) of the Constitution and of federal statutes, in interpreting the law. That's not evident in this case. The three liberals, writing in dissent, noted that, “OSHA’s rule perfectly fits the language of the applicable statutory provision.” They demonstrate this, phrase by phrase: “new hazard,” “physically harmful,” “grave danger,” “necessary,” and so on. In their deliberate, conscientious assessment, they show that the rule perfectly fits the language of the statute.

While the statute in simple, unambiguous language "plainly authorizes" the rule, the six conservative justices object by departing from the text of the statute and inventing a new standard:

Although COVID–19 is a risk that occurs in many workplaces, it is not an occupational hazard in most. COVID–19 can and does spread at home, in schools, during sporting events, and everywhere else that people gather. That kind of universal risk is no different from the day-to-day dangers that all face from crime, air pollution, or any number of communicable diseases. Permitting OSHA to regulate the hazards of daily life—simply because most Americans have jobs and face those same risks while on the clock—would significantly expand OSHA’s regulatory authority without clear congressional authorization.

In 1970, when Congress passed the Occupational Safety and Health Act, it did not foresee the pandemic that began in 2019. Contrary to the court's conservatives, the law Congress passed offers "clear congressional authority" to provide broad protection to American workers from hazards encountered on the job. Since a once in a century pandemic, often spread person to person in workplaces across the country, could not be foreseen, Congress delegated authority to an executive agency to step into the breach.

As the dissenters noted, most folks have little control over their workplaces. (In contrast, compare how thoroughly the justices can and do insulate themselves from harm.) Americans can choose not to eat in a restaurant, go to the movies or a gym, attend church or a concert, or venture anywhere else "that people gather" -- unless they are supermarket cashiers, waitresses, retail clerks, bus drivers, or millions of others who must go to work. These folks rely on OSHA to provide a safe working environment. The conservative justices offer not a whit of empathy or consideration for such working Americans. Echoing right wing talking points, the conservatives characterize the mandate (even with medical and religious exemptions) as an onerous imposition:

A vaccination, after all, “cannot be undone at the end of the workday.”

Nor, of course, can acquiring an infection while on the job. Not every one of the 850,000 Americans who have died of COVID were infected at work or (as with a supermarket customer) at someone else's workplace. It's likely, though, that tens of millions of Americans got infected at their (or someone else's) workplace.

Unbounded arrogance

The conservative justices note:

We are told by the States and the employers that OSHA’s mandate will force them to incur billions of dollars in unrecoverable compliance costs and will cause hundreds of thousands of employees to leave their jobs.… For its part, the Federal Government says that the mandate will save over 6,500 lives and prevent hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.…
It is not our role to weigh such tradeoffs. In our system of government, that is the responsibility of those chosen by the people through democratic processes. Although Congress has indisputably given OSHA the power to regulate occupational dangers, it has not given that agency the power to regulate public health more broadly.

"It is not our role to weigh such tradeoffs." Six unelected, unaccountable justices -- with substantial control over their own working environments, ensuring their own protection -- bar an elected Congress from requiring safe workplaces for millions of Americans during a raging pandemic. Protecting Americans from disease and death takes a back seat to the conservative legal movement's campaign to place constraints on the administrative state.

More shameful still: three justices would have gone further. Justice Gorsuch's concurring opinion (joined by Justices Thomas and Alioto) invokes "the nondelegation doctrine," which is to be found nowhere in the Constitution. It is an invention of ideological, results-oriented conservatives who disfavor government regulations, including health and safety protections. This threesome appears ready to impose a much more sweeping prohibition on the ability of the legislative and executive branches of government to enact and enforce regulations to protect the public.

John Harris is befuddled by our current political situation – “a conflict so profound that, as in the 1860s, democracy, constitutional order and union itself are in peril.” Harris marvels: “A big deal, indeed. But also a puzzle: If this is a 21st century version of 19th century disunion, shouldn’t it be more obvious what the war, at bottom, is all about?

Kevin Drum, using Harris’s question as a jumping off point,  examines “the two most obvious candidates: race and money, with a focus on white men since they're the ones who seem most discontented.” After brief consideration of each candidate, Drum sums up:

The conclusion here is hard to avoid: neither racial animus nor worries about jobs and the economy seem to have recently skyrocketed among large numbers of white Americans. It's hard to believe that either of these things, on their own, are what's torn the country apart. There must be something else at work.
But what?

Multiethnic democracy

While it’s surprising that anyone who has listened to Donald Trump’s grievances during the past decade – from his role as the chief advocate of birtherism, to Mexican “rapists,” to “shithole countries,” to the “invasion” at the Southern border that led to the separation of children from their families, to tirades directed at women of color in the House – could have doubts about what at bottom divides our country, as it happens political scientists, drawing on ample research dating back a decade, have an answer.

There is a division between a party that embraces multiethnic democracy and a party dominated by white Christians with ‘traditional’ views of a racial and gender hierarchy. No matter what zigs and zags Trump takes, Trumpism is animated by hostility toward the other, a rejection of political opponents as not real Americans. Inclusive Democrats are committed to the equality of all, encompassing groups of Americans that Trump and his base regard as illegitimate.

Here is how Lilliana Mason, Julie Wronski and John V. Kane described the division on January 3 for readers of the Washington Post (“Republicans and Democrats have split over whether to support multiethnic democracy, our research shows”):

A democratic system of government ideally affords all citizens equal representation and protection, regardless of race, ethnicity, religion, income, gender, or other areas of difference. That has not always been the case in U.S. history, which has included official and unofficial prejudice, hatred and violence toward non-White, non-Christian citizens, manifested in such ways as Jim Crow laws and the Chinese Exclusion Actracial profiling, and anti-Muslim and anti-LGBTQ hate crimes. While civil rights legislation and court decisions reduced some discrimination in recent decades, U.S. society continues fiercely debating whether to strive toward guaranteeing equal protection under the law and voting rights for all Americans.
That debate now divides the United States’ two major parties. The Democratic Party tends to push for further advances in the pursuit of racial and gender equality. The Republican Party tends to resist such change, sometimes even leaning toward a past when White, Christian men stood unquestioningly at the top of the American social hierarchy. The phrase “Make America Great Again” invokes that time in a tacit endorsement of democratic backsliding.

John Harris referenced a long list of possible answers to his question: “globalism and selfish elites,” “resentment of trade and the decline in real wages,” and dislike of “the cultural ascension of women and African-Americans and the diminution of working class white males. And so on.” He granted that all were “semi-plausible.”  He rejected them all, however unconvincingly, because of “Trump’s zigs on one day and zags the next.”

Kevin Drum’s rejection of race and money as an answer hinged on the absence of any significant changes, as recorded on five charts, at the time of Trump’s ascent. Racial resentment among whites has not mushroomed since 2015, nor has the economic distress of working Americans.

Activating animus

Again, political science has an answer. Research suggests that neither Trump’s candidacy, nor presidential term, or nor continued domination of the Republican Party has increased the prevalence of white racial resentment. There was a reservoir of racial resentment within the American electorate before Donald Trump, including animosity toward the African American, Hispanic, Muslim, and LBGTQ communities. His candidacy and campaign mobilized voters harboring this animus. From the aforementioned analysis:

In our research, we found that Donald Trump’s politics activated and attracted the MAGA faction – a group that had not been securely attached to any particular party.
We used data from the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group survey, which interviewed the same Americans repeatedly between 2011 and 2018, and continues to do so. This publicly available data acts somewhat like a time machine, allowing us to identify the common characteristics of Trump supporters before Trump announced his candidacy. We found about 30 percent of Americans surveyed in 2011 reported feelings of animosity towards African Americans, Hispanics, Muslims, and the LGBTQ community. These individuals make up our MAGA faction. Members of the MAGA faction were approximately 25 percent more supportive of Trump in 2018 than everyone else in the survey, even after taking into account many other factors, including partisanship.
This relationship between hatred and political support does not exist for other Republican leaders. We found that 2011 animosity toward these groups did not predict later approval of Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, or the Republican Party. Only Trump was linked to bias.
No Trump-like figure emerged among Democrats. Rather, pre-existing animus towards these four groups consistently predicted less support for prominent figures in the Democratic Party. Nor did we find that disliking Whites or Christians – groups associated particularly with the Republican Party — in 2011 predicted higher support for Democratic leaders. Trump was unique.
Our findings reveal that Trump did not himself create this animosity; he merely harnessed it and benefited from it politically.

They offer this chart:

"Our key finding is that, regardless of one’s party identification, greater animus toward African Americans, Hispanics, Muslims, or the LGBTQ community predicted substantially greater support for Trump." -- Lilliana Mason, Julie Wronski and John V. Kane

We should give credit to John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck, who drew on many of the same sources (including the Voter Study Group) for their 2018 book Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, which offers a book length account of how Trump’s message of white America under siege, sharply at odds with Hillary Clinton’s appeals to diversity, resonated with his voters (many of whom had voted for Obama just four years earlier).

They write (in Chapter 8, “What Happened”), “The campaign’s focus on identity-inflected issues—and Clinton’s and Trump’s sharply divergent positions—led voters to perceive Clinton and Trump as farther apart on these issues than any major-party presidential candidates in over forty years.” Moreover, “In turn, voters’ attitudes on these issues became more strongly related to how they voted in 2016 than in recent presidential elections.”

Trump still dominates the Republican Party. The issues he brought to the fore continue to divide Americans.

Vaccination is far and away the best method for combating the out of control pandemic that is filling hospitals to capacity and has already killed well over 830,000 Americans. Republican governors, other officials, and candidates, as well as the talkers in conservative media (from Fox News Channel on down the food chain) rage against vaccine mandates (even with exceptions for resisters to test regularly). The Biden administration has sought, through OSHA regulations, to protect American workers (and, of course, their customers, families, and neighbors). Based on arguments heard yesterday, I anticipate (with most observers) that the Republican majority on the Supreme Court will agree to issue a stay on this regulation.

First of all, this is consistent with the crusade of the conservative legal movement (led by the Federalist Society) to reign in the modern administrative state. By doing so they intend to take us back, step by step, to the Lochner Era, that is, the pre-FDR court.

None of the members of the majority will have a tinge of regret that their decision will benefit the agenda of the Republican Party and harm a Democratic president.

Second, these ideologues will not be deterred in the slightest by the adverse effects, no matter how severe, of their ruling on working men and women in the country, of the American public, or of the continuing social disruption the pandemic exacts.

I'd like to offer reflections on the second point.

When casting a vote may threaten your life: Recall the April 6, 2020 SCOTUS ruling when the Republican justices won the day (Republican National Committee, Et Al. v. Democratic National Committee, Et. Al.). It was a 5-4 ruling, when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who wrote the dissenting opinion, was still alive.

At a time when COVID was raging in Wisconsin and the primary election less than a week away, thousands of mostly Democratic voters had not received the absentee ballots they had requested. A federal judge had agreed to allow absentee ballots received six days after the statutory deadline to be counted. The Republican SCOTUS majority, opining that the case turned on a "narrow, technical question," granted the stay requested by the Republican National Committee. The unsigned opinion gave nary a nod to concerns with public safety. Nor with the right to vote.

Justice Ginsburg's dissent (joined by Justices Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan) concluded with these words:

The concerns advanced by the Court and the applicants pale in comparison to the risk that tens of thousands of voters will be disenfranchised. Ensuring an opportunity for the people of Wisconsin to exercise their votes should be our paramount concern.
* * *
The majority of this Court declares that this case presents a “narrow, technical question.” Ante, at 1. That is wrong. The question here is whether tens of thousands of Wisconsin citizens can vote safely in the midst of a pandemic. Under the District Court’s order, they would be able to do so. Even if they receive their absentee ballot in the days immediately following election day, they could return it. With the majority’s stay in place, that will not be  possible. Either they will have to brave the polls, endangering their own and others’ safety. Or they will lose their right to vote, through no fault of their own. That is a matter of utmost importance—to the constitutional rights of Wisconsin’s citizens, the integrity of the State’s election process, and in this most extraordinary time, the health of the Nation.

The justices can insulate themselves from harm. Turning to January 2022, let's note that all the justices have been fully vaccinated and boosted. Because of COVID, the Supreme Court building is closed to the public. Although the building if open for official business, no visitors are allowed. All public lectures and visitor programs have been suspended.

The Supreme Court requires all counsel and co-council appearing before the court to test for COVID a day in advance. Anyone testing positive, must appear remotely. Attorneys who appear in person must wear masks (either an N95 or KN95)-- except when speaking. When they conclude, they must leave the courtroom and the building immediately.

The justices, with the exception of Justice Sotomayor (who has a pre-existing condition that makes her highly vulnerable to an infection), have been hearing cases unmasked. During Friday's argument, Justice Sotomayor chose to participate remotely from her office; seven justices wore masks; Justice Gorsuch did not.

Long story short: the justices can dictate the terms of their work, place conditions on their working environment, and protect themselves by any means (vaccines, masks, social distancing, working remotely, and barring public access to the building) that scientific understanding prescribes. For the vast majority of workers in America, this is not the case. In the absence of health and safety regulations, most folks don't have much say regarding their working environment. And the vast majority of workers perform tasks that can't be done remotely.

Fox News protects its own. The situation of the justices is analogous to that of the Fox News Channel's prime time stars. As early as spring 2020 (when Donald Trump as president knew, but was not acknowledging, the dangers COVID posed), Fox News was deep cleaning surfaces in its offices; the protocol included daily sanitizing and disinfecting several times a day. By the end of summer 2021, Fox had required all employees to report their vaccination status. Within a short time, 90% of its employees had been vaccinated, and Fox required the others to test for COVID daily. That hasn’t stopped Tucker Carlson and other FNC personalities from spewing disinformation about vaccines.

There is no surfeit of empathy for the American public among the leadership of the Republican Party. Not in Congress, not in governors' mansions or state legislatures, not on cable TV, and not at the United States Supreme Court under Republican control.

In yesterday’s New York Times (“A.O.C. and Manchin Are in the Same Party. No Wonder Democrats Are Struggling”), Julia Azari notes that “Democrats are weathering a storm of accusations of being plain bad at politics” and offers a crisp analysis of why the Biden administration is struggling with its legislative agenda.

Two transformational Democratic presidents, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, wrestled (like Joe Biden) with a broad coalition represented by contrasting interests and viewpoints, but both had much larger Congressional majorities to work with. Nationalized politics has led the Manchins and Sinemas of the party to “work harder to draw media attention to their performances of political independence” in resisting the president and the leadership in Congress. And a stronger left wing in the party grapples with a conservative Democratic flank, while traditional liberals must contend with progressives.

For today’s “smaller, patchwork Democratic coalition,” delivering on its promises is tough going (especially since Republicans are more likely to offer relentless obstruction, than votes). Azari offers a couple of ways out for Democrats.

Strengthen social movements

The first is to strengthen social movements, which could advance progressive issues such as green energy and student debt, assist in electing progressive Democrats, and “help to mobilize different groups of voters around shared priorities like health care and economic insecurity.”

Elevating progressive issues on the public agenda and pressing the boundaries of political debate could serve to bolster the Democratic coalition. In Barack Obama’s words (regarding young uncompromising activists):

There’s a different role for activists as opposed to people once they’re actually elected in Congress trying to get a bill passed. And there are going to be times when young people are impatient or consider themselves obligated to speak truth to power even if it might offend some swing voters somewhere. That kind of messiness is okay. Because what they’re doing is stretching the boundaries over time of what’s possible.

Enact structural reforms

Azari’s second route is to implement institutional reform, including changing rules in the Senate (such as the filibuster) that prevent majority rule, and “making Congress more proportional.” (Though she doesn’t say how to do the latter, presumably she is thinking of reforms such as expanding the size of the House, enacting statewide proportional representation in the House, and adding states to the union to make the Senate less malapportioned.)

Pointing to “the influence of wealthy interests over public opinion,” she observes that both Manchin and Sinema have strong ties to powerful interests opposed to the interests of Democratic constituents not among the elite. She suggests structural solutions, such as “tightening regulations over conflicts of interest for members of Congress and enacting lobbying reform.” In the absence of such reforms, powerful interests (aided and abetted by a stridently conservative Supreme Court) can veto popular legislative initiatives.

The alternative path for Democrats is to “scale back on its policy agenda,” which is probably the route Democratic leaders will take in trying to revive Build Back Better in the next few weeks, but this is hardly a viable, long-term solution.

Big-D and small-d democrats

There is only one political party in our country today committed to democracy. The Democratic Party. That’s why this discussion of party strategy is so critical to the country’s future.